Psychological Distress & Physical Multimorbidity in England
Negative binomial regression on Health Survey for England 2022 (n = 4,735)
Each one-point rise in psychological distress predicts a 9.7% increase in physical health conditions. That effect is statistically identical in the richest and poorest neighbourhoods.
It's well established that people in deprived areas have worse physical health, and that mental distress and physical illness tend to go together. The open question was how those two interact. Does deprivation make distress hit harder, or do they simply stack on top of each other?
This matters practically because the two answers lead to different NHS policies. If deprivation amplifies the effect, you target mental health resources at deprived areas. If the effects are just additive, you screen everyone.
Using survey data from 4,735 adults across England, we measured psychological distress and counted each person's long-term physical conditions, then adjusted for age, sex, income, education, smoking, drinking, and region so we weren't just picking up those factors instead.
Distress and physical illness were clearly linked: each one-point increase in someone's distress score came with roughly 9.7% more physical conditions, and that held up firmly across every version of the model we tried. Living in the most deprived areas independently added about 25% more conditions.
The key test was whether those two effects multiply. They don't. When we explicitly checked whether distress hits harder in deprived areas, the result was flatly insignificant. Both raise physical illness, but they do so independently, so the extra risk carried by a distressed person is much the same regardless of where they live.
Why it matters
You'd expect mental distress to be especially damaging for people in poorer areas, so that's where you'd concentrate mental health screening. The data says otherwise. People in deprived areas do carry more physical illness overall, but distress adds the same amount of extra illness whether you're rich or poor. That points towards checking mental health across all patients in physical care, not just the ones from deprived postcodes.
Predicted physical condition count by GHQ-12 distress score. The lines run parallel, not divergent: deprivation shifts the baseline but not the slope.
Deprivation carries its own effect on top of distress: 25.3% more conditions in the most deprived quintile. Bars show 95% CIs; Q3 (grey) is the one quintile that does not reach significance.
Dataset, tools and how it was done+
Dataset: Health Survey for England 2022 (UK Data Service, Study Number 9469)
Tools: Python · statsmodels · Negative binomial GLM · Survey weighting
- Analytical sample: 4,735 adults (complete-case), Health Survey for England 2022, UKDS SN 9469
- Outcome overdispersed (variance/mean = 1.53), so negative binomial was preferred over Poisson (LR = 122.68, p < 0.001)
- 4 nested models: GHQ-12 only, then + demographics, then + full controls, then + GHQ×IMD interaction
- Preferred spec (Model 3): IRR = 1.097 for GHQ-12, robust to OLS, logistic, and BMI-adjusted checks
- GHQ×IMD interaction jointly insignificant (χ²(4) = 1.21, p = 0.877), no effect modification by deprivation